Large-scale attacks on the Ukrainian energy sector in late March to May have severely damaged or destroyed around a half of generating capacity (over 9 GW).
Several thermal (TPP) and hydroelectric power plants (HPP) in the oblasts of Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia were completely destroyed, with other TPPs and HPPs damaged to varying degrees. Overall, the amount of destroyed capacity has been estimated at over 80 percent for TPPs and more than 40 percent for HPPs.
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Overall, data on energy capacity remains strictly controlled in the context of Martial Law, but based on previous consumption and import patterns, severe deficits (up to 30 percent) are likely to arise only in peak hours. In this scenario, and if current load-shedding practices persist, industrial consumers will need to operate below capacity, and household consumption will be restricted through planned outages, including in the winter. Additional attacks would further destabilize the energy system.